For Nerds: The Odds of Finding the One

For Nerds: The Odds of Finding the One

Even a billionaire who is a CEO of two companies (Tesla & SpaceX) and works 80–100 hours a week had this to say about love:

NB: The estimations that I do here are just done to give insight on finding a soulmate. I use myself as an example in the calculations that I do.

We all know that there are at least 7 billion people in the world, but most people like to date someone who is closer to their geographical location. So now we need to pick a place. I will pick Johannesburg, South Africa, since I live there. So now the question is: what are the odds of finding someone truly meant for you A.K.A a soulmate, in Johannesburg?

Well, first of all, how many people are there in Johannesburg currently? There are currently about 5,926,668 people in Johannesburg. Since I am 27 years old, I have to determine how many females are there between the ages 20–29. For this calculation I use the latest population pyramid that I could find of the whole of South Africa and assume that:

  • It’s the same distribution for Johannesburg.
  • The 2020 population pyramid hasn’t changed much for the age range 20 -29 in 2021.

As we can see, there are about 4.1% females aged 20–24 and 4.4% females aged 25–29. What this could infer based on my assumptions is that there are about 503,767 females aged 20-29.

The question here now is: how many of them would I find attractive? Well, in percentage, I would probably find 40% of the females aged 20-29 attractive, but the number might be lower. (더 보기…)

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